Sidestepping the Avalanche
The week that was ending yesterday was one of the most volatile of our lifetimes.
The bond market was clubbed as the US Treasury Bond lost 5% in two days, an event that does not appear to have occurred in 40 years. Finanical advisory firms push bonds and other flavors of fixed income as safe, poorly communicating, if not deliberately omitting, to clients how bonds are graveyards of capital in times of strong inflation.
After a wild ride, stocks closed the week higher but realize that despite the pain that has been felt in the equity markets, stocks are still trading at a price/sales multiple that is higher than has been recorded in prior bubble valuations. Price/Sales is arguably even more important of a barometer of the markets than in the past because below-the-revenue-line accounting gimmickry appears more widespread than before in our lifetimes. Price/Sales is harder to monkey with and in no uncertain terms the multiple shows by this metric the market continues to be wildly expensive.
The notion that bonds are safe in inflationary times is yet another lie hoisted on the public. If inflation expectations rise by 2%, the value of long bonds would be expected to fall by approximately 40%.
Do you think most investors understand the impact of this dynamic on their bond portfolios? We doubt it. Which leads us to reflect on the long list of lies the public has been told in recent years. Remember the ubiquitous media blitz telling us that Corona was so deadly that it threatened the extinction of humanity? In hindsight it seems clear to most that this was a deception to create a need for a “vaccine” that wasn't a vaccine at all. While the media would mock such an idea, could the shots have been a lie to not only devastate our health but to trigger satanic possession as detailed by Savvas Agiritis after he was talked into getting the jab? As crazy as that may sound at first, did you ever consider what Revelation says about pharmaceutical companies?
"The light of a candle (The Holy Spirit) shall shine no more at all in thee; and the voice of the bridegroom (Jesus) and of the bride shall be heard no more at all in thee. For thy merchants were the great men of the earth, for by thy Pharmakeia were all nations deceived." Revelation 18:23
If your bible uses the word sorcery in place of pharmakeia, know your translation has been compromised. Pharmakeia is used in the original Greek texts and the definition of pharmakeia is that which is associated with the use of drugs.
We were deceived by the great merchants of the world who alongside our politicians have enriched themselves at our expense, the citizens they had pledged to protect. There was a clear reason the hypocritic oath taken by doctors was changed and the standard to “do no harm” was removed.
Covid was unquestionably one of the greatest lies and scams of our times.
In our opinion the two biggest lies of our time are however, those that relate foremost to God & then to gold. Perhaps we are wrong and that covid shots are a bigger lie than gold, but the scope of lies around gold will prove to be much more far-reaching than covid lies since almost 100% of Americans will be badly hurt by the lies we are told concerning gold, if history has any value.
A litmus test as to the quality of the guidance given you is if your doctors, your advisors and others led you to get the shots, or if they guided you to refrain from taking the jabs.
We feel blessed that by February of 2020 we wrote to our members that corona was not as deadly as advertised. To the best of my knowledge, not one of our colleagues or their children took the shots. What Americans are now understanding is that just as deaths attributed to corona were not really due to corona (reference the millions in bribe money paid to the healthcare complex to mislabel deaths as due to corona when corona was not the cause), the healthcare complex is refusing to discuss the correlations between the shots and the resurfacing of dormant cancers and other diseases that have in many cases led to death.
If you or someone you know did get the shots, don't despair. There is a path to healing through prayer and fasting (fasting, not intermittent dieting). As heaven specifically encourages us, "You have forgotten that through prayer and fasting you can avert wars and suspend the laws of nature."
A suspension in the laws of nature is exactly what is needed for those who took the shots.
Looking back, what do you think of your advisors telling you to get the shots despite not knowing what the ingredients were? And medical professionals weren’t even suspicious that knowledge of the ingredients was forbidden?
Think how at some levels the financial firms are even worse today - holding investors in dollar-denominated assets when our nation and currency are overly indebted. It is not as if this is a backdrop without historical precedent - overly indebted currencies have never preserved wealth. Like doctors who were forced to prescribe covid shots or face termination, financial advisors are forced by their firms to keep client assets in financial instruments and talk investors out of gold.
Just as it was rare to find a doctor who kept his patients away from the shots, rare is the financial firm that steers its clients to physical gold held outside of its brokerage account to properly diversify and protect hard-earned wealth.
Think about the hypocrisy. Investors list wealth preservation as an important goal. Yet financial firms push clients into paper currency assets that have never preserved investor wealth.
And physical gold that has preserved wealth over the centuries? Bank of America admitted that less than 2% of advisor-directed accounts had any material allocation to gold.
While ETF buying of gold increased at the end of this week, open interest in gold contracts fell again as recently as last Friday showing few market participants own gold – yet.
Gold would not be close to its all-time highs if there wasn’t someone buying it. We think those buyers continue to be central banks and elites in the ruling class like Nancy Pelosi who according to Forbes is now worth almost $300 million - achieved on her salary of $223,500.
Don’t be misled into thinking no gold in your portfolio is ideal for you or that financial gold such as ETF’s or derivatives offer the same wealth protection as physical gold. Financial gold is in some ways like investing in a time share – You don’t own the asset; you just have a claim on physical gold that may or may not be honored when you need it.
With more than a quadrillion in derivatives, do you really want your most important reserve asset to be a derivative like the GLD that even today admits you cannot claim your gold?
And what of the appropriate sizing?
Per our prior letters, the math is clear. If you wish to optimize a portfolio as measured by the Sharpe ratio which attempts to synthesize risk and reward, an investor wanted 15% of his portfolio in gold dating back to the Great Depression. Since the new millennium, that optimal allocation has risen to 25% of a financial portfolio. Interestingly, that is the exact allocation range we are hearing from central bankers. Nations continue to be buyers of gold and continue to move away from financial gold and towards physical gold held outside of the financial system. In recent days, even our major ally Germany announced it will no longer trust its gold to be held for it by other nations and is repatriating its gold within its borders. The Bank of Australia said that its gold held by the Bank of England was melted and used without its approval and that the Bank of England held fake gold in its place. The British did not deny the allegations.
And for those who still think of crypto as a safety asset rather than a risk asset like a technology stock, El Salvador announced it was removing BTC-backing from its currency. What do you think these nations are realizing as they move towards gold and away from other assets such as the dollar and crypto?
History tells us you will have remorse if you accept the lie that it is prudent to have little or no gold at this time outside of the financial system to protect your investments.
History is also clear that different types of gold nets different returns for its investors.
If a firm has not guided you to gold until now, should you really have confidence they will guide you well through the spectrum of gold options today? Physical metals are all that we do and the difference did not go unnoticed by one of the nation’s largest precious metals custodians. Unbeknownst to us, this firm audited our retirement products detailed from a trade level and concluded St. Joseph Partners was one of the only gold firms that they could recommend – and we were the only US-based physical gold dealer to make that grade in their report for which we did not pay a penny.
We support Trump’s passion to bring manufacturing back to America and are thrilled to be doing the same with our US-owned and domiciled manufacturing facility, staffed by fellow patriots. But we should expect such a path is going to create inflationary pressures, and realize that inflation is bad for the valuations of financial assets and historically very positive for gold. As well as gold has done, be clear in understanding that the Fed’s $10 trillion in purchases have artificially elevated the valuations of financial assets, including real estate, while artificially slowing the ascent of gold. That is great news for investors who still do not have full gold positions, as this essentially means our government is unintentionally subsidizing your gold purchases today in contrast to creating a defacto tax to pay up and buy financial assets.
We doubt we will ever see such a situation again where the government is essentially subsidizing gold purchases. Kash Patel is also talking about going after illegitimate short sellers. Gold has been the poster child for illegitimate short selling in our opinion in recent years. While this is clearly an incremental boost to gold owners, it means the window of a government-like subsidy to buy gold is closing.
This week we initially saw gold trade down with the market. Know that as that pricing dynamic occurred we saw little selling in the physical markets - the price pressure was entirely from futures traders desperately selling all asset classes to meet margin calls and prevent their accounts from being closed. We suggest buying weakness to get to a target allocation to protect your family. Don’t think it is too late to buy gold. If you think gold is peaking at $3,000 what you are essentially saying is that you believe our debt crisis is solved and that the dollar is going to begin regaining purchasing power over time.
History says that is highly unlikely – because it has yet to occur. As you think about Trump’s chess moves, verifying the gold is at Fort Knox is important if it is there, but revaluing gold to mark to market is meaningless. At $3,000/oz. gold, the asset is still a rounding error on our national balance sheet. But at a price of $30,000/oz. of gold, then America’s balance sheet suddenly looks a lot better and having the gold at Fort Knox is an important piece of the puzzle to restore America’s fortunes.
Call us and we will gladly talk you through allocating to gold in retirement accounts, for your business or family. We can show you the data – Having appropriately sized gold allocations has allowed investors and families to sidestep avalanches of financial pressure when debt crises have emerged throughout history.
God bless and God bless America.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.